Vice President Kamala Harris is ahead by 2.9 points in veteran pollster Nate Silver’s forecast model, dubbed Silver Bulletin, with the Democratic candidate getting a bounce from the debate held on Sept. 10.
Harris’ Lead Swells: The 2.9-point lead Harris now has over her Republican rival Donald Trump compares to the 2.2-point lead she had on the debate day and the 2 points by which she was ahead the day after the debate when none of the post-debate polls results had dropped, Silver said in his substack post on Tuesday.
The results from the latest polls, conducted on Sunday or Monday, show a bigger lead for the vice president, with the lead running to as much as 4.9 points, he noted. “It’s possible that Harris is benefiting not just from the debate but also from the favorable news coverage that it's brought her,” he said.
Silver clarified that these are a favorable set of polls for Harris as they have Democratic-leaning house effects.
No Assassination Attempt Boost: Another unsuccessful assassination attempt at Trump, this time in Florida, didn’t create much ripples, Silver said. The first one at a Pennsylvania campaign rally instantly produced a bump in the ex-president’s poll numbers.
“The news cycle turns over quickly,” the polling veteran said.
That said, fundamentals of the race still probably favor Trump, he said, reiterating a view from last weekend.
What State Polls Tell? The results of state polls have been more mixed for Harris, Silver said. USA Today-Suffolk University poll results showed the vice president ahead in the key swing state of Pennsylvania by 3 points, he said, adding that the poll is of high quality. But another poll revealed she was behind in the state by 2 points, he said.
“State polls are really what matters the most to the model in the end,” Silver said.
The Odds: Silver said there is now a 25% chance of Harris winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. But the odds of her losing the popular vote but winning the electoral college is only 0.2%, he said. “You'll see lots of headlines saying that Harris is leading — but our elections aren't determined by the popular vote,” he added.
To make his case, he noted that former Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 points in 2016 but lost the electoral college. President Joe Biden won the popular vote by nearly 4.5 points but barely emerged victorious in tipping-point states like Wisconsin, he added.
“So if Harris is ahead by 3-ish points — in between Clinton and Biden — you can see why the model thinks of the race as a tossup,” Silver said.
Commenting on Trump, the pollster said the former president and his running mate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) have made a lot of mistakes in the campaign, the latest being “conspiratorial claims about Haitian immigrants.”
“Trump often doesn’t react well when he's losing ground in the polls,” he said.
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