Vice President Kamala Harris was ahead of her Republican rival Donald Trump, going by the results of two separate polls published over the weekend.
The Matchups: Harris was ahead of Trump by five points in a one-on-one contest, with the tally at 49%-44%, a national NBC News poll conducted Sept. 13-17 with 1,000 registered voters showed. The survey’s margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. This marked a shift from the sentiment that prevailed when NBC News did its July polls. When President Joe Biden was still in the race, Trump was ahead by two points.
The results of the Harris vs. Trump matchup showed Black voters siding with the former by an 85%-7% tally. Harris received majority support among voters, aged 18-34 years (57%-34%) and voters with college degrees 59%-38%). Among independents, the vice president received a singularity of votes (43%-35%).
Trump’s support base is among men (52%-40%), white voters (52%-43%) and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%).
In a welcome development for Harris and the Democrats, support for the party reached its highest point in NBC News polling since mid-2023. At the same time, the share of voters saying they were undecided or wanted another choice dipped to its lowest point since that time.
A CBS/YouGov poll conducted between Sept. 18-20 showed Harris leading yet again, with the margin at 52%-48% among likely voters. About 3,129 registered voters nationwide were contacted for the purpose, with the margin of sampling error at plus, or minus 2.2 points.
In the CBS/YouGov poll, Harris was ahead in the battleground states with a slightly smaller margin. She received 51% support and Trump 49%.
Harris scores better among the subset who think the economy is good and/or their personal finances are good. Eighty-eight percent of those who said the economy is good backed her and 64% of those who said their personal finances are good supported her.
Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who did NBC News poll along with Democratic pollster said Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates said Trump’s eroding support was due to some Republicans, who are not his die-hard supporters, deserting him. But this could change, he said.
We have seen this movie before. They can get squishy on Trump, and then in the end they come back and they vote the way they're going to vote on a Republican-versus-Democrat preference for Congress,” said McInturff.
CBS/YouGov poll found that people who prioritize the personal qualities of a candidate are voting for Harris (66%-33%) and those who say policies are very important are evenly split between them.
Multi-Candidate Fray: When the ballot included Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party’s Jill Stein and Libertarian Chase Oliver, Harris had a bigger lead, 47% of the registered voters favored her and 41% Trump, while the other candidates managed 2% or less each, according to NBC News poll.
Harris Surges, Trump Sedate: NBC News poll showed that Harris’ popularity has improved notably since July when she had a net negative rating of 18, courtesy of 32% of voters holding positive opinions about her and 50% seeing her in a negative light. In the September poll, her favorability improved to a net positive 3 points, with 48% and 45%, respectively, rating her positively and negatively.
No major-party presidential candidate in the 35-year history of the NBC News poll has seen this kind of jump in popularity in an election, the pollster said.
Trump’s net rating was essentially unchanged from July at a net negative 13 points.
Economy – The Achilles’ Heel: Harris has her fair share of pitfalls. In the CBS News/YouGov survey, among likely voters who mentioned the economy is a major concern, she trailed by a 47%-53% margin. That said, it has been an improvement from the tally in August when she trailed by a 43%-56% margin.
The proportion of the registered voters who said the economy is good improved from 35% in August to 39% currently and the proportion who said the economy is bad fell from 62% to 59%.
The NBC News poll found that two-thirds of voters said their family income is falling behind the cost of living, and voters mentioned the cost of living as their top concern, handing Trump the advantage on the economy and inflation. The former president’s advantage, however, reduced relative to what it was when he was pitched against Biden in July.
The Consumer price inflation has been on a sustainable downward trajectory so much that it allowed the Federal Reserve to drop the Fed funds rate by 50 basis points last week. With interest rates receding from their highs, consumers, who fuel much of the economic growth, can now heave a sigh of relief.
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